Uncertain Judgements  Eliciting Experts' Probabilities Cover

Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts’ Probabilities

ISBN/ASIN: 9780470029992,9780470033319 | 2006 | English | pdf | 329/329 pages | 3.19 Mb
Author: Anthony O’Hagan, Caitlin E. Buck, Alireza Daneshkhah, J. Richard Eiser, Paul H. Garthwaite, David J. Jenkinson, Jeremy E. Oakley, Tim Rakow(auth.), Stephen Senn, Marian Scott, Peter Bloomfield(eds.)

Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples.
This is achieved by:Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research. Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities. Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs. Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences. Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms.
An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.Content:
Chapter 1 Fundamentals of Probability and Judgement (pages 1–24):
Chapter 2 The Elicitation Context (pages 25–31):
Chapter 3 The Psychology of Judgement Under Uncertainty (pages 33–59):
Chapter 4 The Elicitation of Probabilities (pages 61–96):
Chapter 5 Eliciting Distributions – General (pages 97–119):
Chapter 6 Eliciting and Fitting a Parametric Distribution (pages 121–151):
Chapter 7 Eliciting Distributions – Uncertainty and Imprecision (pages 153–160):
Chapter 8 Evaluating Elicitation (pages 161–177):
Chapter 9 Multiple Experts (pages 179–192):
Chapter 10 Published Examples of the Formal Elicitation of Expert Opinion (pages 193–216):
Chapter 11 Guidance on Best Practice (pages 217–222):
Chapter 12 Areas for Research (pages 223–226):

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